What We Know at This Time
November 29, 2001

FY 2003 Revenue Projections

Based on Bureau of the Budget information, General Revenue Funds growth for FY 2003 is ESTIMATED at a maximum of $500 Million. Using that estimate and assuming Governor Ryan continues his 51% pledge, education would receive $255 Million with approximately $170 Million for elementary and secondary education.

State Board of Education Budget Pressures

There are in excess of 60 line items in the State Board of Education budget. These lines can be categorized into four major groupings. They are 1) retirement, 2) general state aid, 3) mandated categoricals and 4) others. At this time, it is anticipated that the increase for retirement will be approximately $115 Million. If the mandated categoricals are fully funded, the necessary increase will be approximately $75 Million. This totals $190 Million and an increase for general state aid has not been included.

General State Aid and Hold Harmless Estimates

The following cost scenarios are ESTIMATED and assume NO CHANGE IN THE POVERTY MEASURE OR POVERTY GRANT ALLOCATION FORMULA. The current cost of GSA (at $4,560) and HH is $3,225 Million and $37 Million respectively, for a total cost of $3,262 Million. THESE ARE APPROPRIATED AMOUNTS BUT WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE CONTINUING APPROPRIATION. The following GSA estimates have been increased by $8 M to account for final EAV and ADA adjustments.

Foundation
Level
Increase
GSA
HH
Total
Net
Increase
$4,660
$100
$3,253M
$54 M
$3,307 M
$45 M
$4,680
$120
$3,284 M
$50 M
$3,334 M
$72 M
$4,700
$140
$3,314 M
$46 M
$3,360 M
$98 M
$4,720
$160
$3,344 M
$43 M
$3,387 M
$125 M
$4,740
$180
$3,375 M
$40 M
$3,415 M
$153 M
$4,760
$200
$3,405 M
$37 M
$3,442 M
$180 M

The Augenblick Methodology

The consensus opinion of EFAB members was to use both 1999 and 2000 ISAT scores, to consider only districts with poverty percentages within ½ standard deviation of the mean, whose meets/exceeds percentage is greater than or equal to 67% and whose participation rate on all tests was greater than or equal to 80%. In addition, the consensus opinion was to use 100% of the per capita tuition figure, and adjust the per capita tuition charge by the McMahon index. Only three individuals responded to the question concerning how to deal with different district types. Two of those three suggested using a weighted average and then adjusting up by the Consumer Price Index. The following costs are based on these parameters, Again, no changes are made to the poverty grant.

Foundation
Level
Increase
GSA
HH
Total
Net
Increase
$5,090 (Unit Only)
$530
$3,921 M
$13 M
$3,934 M
$672 M
$5,798 (Wt. Avg.)
$1,238
$5,078 M
$ 2 M
$5,080 M
$1,818 M
$6,151 (CPI x Wt. Avg.)
$1,591
$5,673 M
$ 1 M
$5,674 M
$2,412 M